"Doomsday: What Happens When Gas is $10 a Gallon"

For decades we’ve lived (and driven) in denial, somehow assuming we have the “right” to cheap gas, and therefore, low-cost transportation. Now it’s time to face reality and consider what will happen when (not if) gas hits $10 a gallon.

The following are my hypotheses. (Follow the embedded links for recent news coverage that contribute to my theories.) These things haven’t happened… yet:

AIR TRANSPORT: Following the demise of a dozen airlines and the shrinking of the remaining carriers, air fares soar and service is cut. Air travel becomes affordable to few. Airport congestion fades as business trips are replaced with tele-conferencing. Hotels are shuttered as “leisure travel” becomes unaffordable.

HIGHWAYS: Rush-hour on I-95 is a breeze as half of all motorists can no longer afford to drive. But the highways are a mess of potholes as the price of asphalt, made from petroleum, quintuples making it impossible to maintain the roads because gas tax revenues have dropped with decreased sales. With more people working from home or on flex-time, traffic congestion is a thing of the past. But with home heating oil at $12 a gallon, people close off rooms in their “McMansions” and huddle in the few remaining spaces they can afford to heat, usually with wood stoves which are also in short supply. Office buildings, by law, can heat to no more than 60 degrees in colder months.

MASS TRANSIT: Delivery delays in the long awaited M8 cars and fears their manufacturer Kawasaki may declare bankruptcy send rail commutation into a tail-spin. Seats are pulled out of cars to create standing room capacity and Metro-North offers cheaper fares to those who can’t get a seat. As in Tokyo, “pushers” (click here for video) are assigned at Grand Central to squeeze passengers into trains. Few can afford to drive and park at rail stations, so most spaces there are turned over to bike racks. Despite fare increases, ridership soars.

AROUND TOWN: Local traffic drops as people consolidate their few truly necessary shopping trips. Because they are so dependent on oil (for fertlizers, packaging and transport), food prices soar. Food imported out of season becomes an occasional treat. Few can afford to eat out at now-chilly restaurants dealing with the same food shortages. Wagons and carts, bikes with racks, mopeds and scooters replace the SUV. Kids take the school bus daily instead of being chauffeured by Mom. Suburban housing prices continue to fall as people flock to the walkable cities with good mass transit. Local taxes rise, encouraging further migration. Schools can’t afford good teachers who must still commute from far away due to lack of local affordable housing.

THE ENVIRONMENT: Oil drilling begins in the Alaskan wilderness, but no supply of oil will reach the lower-48 for three years. In a panic, Congress weakens clean air laws to permit increased use of coal in power plants. Air pollution worsens and acid rain decimates much of the Northeast. Increased CO2 emissions hasten global warming. The sea level rises and coastal communities risk greater flooding as more numerous and powerful hurricanes ravage the US.

THE ECONOMY: The recession becomes a Depression as the impact of decreased mobility and soaring energy costs hit home. China decides to stop buying US Treasury notes and the US dollar hits new lows, making imported oil even more expensive.

Will any of these predictions come true? Time will tell. What can we do to prevent this Doomsday scenario? Not much.

So enjoy what’s left of the era of cheap oil. We’ll all have a lot of explaining to do to our grandchildren.

For more, see www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and www.oilcrashmovie.com or just Google “peak oil”.

"The Folly of a Gas Tax Holiday"

Once again, politicians are pandering to our worst instincts. They’re suggesting a summer vacation for our 18.4 cent per gallon Federal gasoline tax, telling us it will make driving more affordable in the busy travel months again. Hogwash!

If anything, lowering gas prices will only drive up demand, and thus, lead to even higher prices.

And cutting the gas tax would mean $10 billion not collected to pay for long overdue road maintenance and repairs. Good for car repair shops, but bad for motorists.

This assumes, of course, that the oil companies won’t raise prices. And it doesn’t explain how to deal with the post-summer shock of reinstating that tax in the fall, just before the election.

The same gas tax scheme was floated last year on a state level in a plan that would have lost us $120 million in subsidies for mass transit. Fortunately, wiser minds prevailed in ‘07 and I hope the same will happen this year.

Even if the Federal tax holiday went through, it would save the average motorist, by most estimates, a whopping $1.83 per week. Oh yeah, that’ll help.

If this is how lawmakers respond to our energy crisis, God help us. McCain and Clinton must think we’re naïve and short-sighted… and maybe they’re right. (To his credit, Obama is standing alone in opposition to this idiocy).

If a patient is an alcoholic, you send them to rehab. You don’t just subsidize the price of booze hoping to postpone the inevitable.

The inevitable is ever-higher gasoline prices. For years I’ve been writing that gasoline is too cheap, and I still believe that. Americans are still spoiled with cheap fuel, even at $4 a gallon. Last week in London petrol sold for $8.20. (My daughter helped me with the math, converting pounds to dollars, Imperial gallons to US). Admittedly, some of that price is taxes used to subsidize mass transit. But consider the vast network of trains and buses available in the UK, and I think you’ll agree they’re funding some great alternatives to the single occupancy motor vehicle.

I only wish we had such choices. Sad old Metro-North is enjoying a huge surge in ridership, but because short-sighted lawmakers in Hartford didn’t act a decade ago to order more rail cars, we’ll have subway-like, standee-only conditions on most trains by the time the new M8 cars arrive next fall.

I’ll tell you how to save money on gas: drive less. Trade in your Hummer for a Prius. Be sure your tires are fully inflated. Drive at 55 mph instead of 70. Coast when possible. If you’re stopping for more than ten seconds, turn off your engine. Take unnecessary weight out of your car (unless it’s another passenger). Keep your engine tuned up. Ride a bike (but not on the train). Try walking.

Sure, take a vacation this summer. You can even do it by car if you’d like.

But first, check how much your next road-trip will cost at the AAA’s nifty website www.fuelcostcalculator.com . Then, price out your alternatives by mass transit. That train or bus is making the trip with or without you, so get onboard.

And while you’re traveling, drop a note to your elected officials and ask them why they still pay only lip-service to our nation’s energy strategy. Ask them why Congress is letting tax credits for solar and wind energy lapse just when we need them most. Lawmakers found time last week to vote for “National Watermelon Month” (really!), but they couldn’t agree on a long range plan to provide energy for our nation. Nero is fiddling while Rome burns.

A gas tax holiday this summer? Give me a break.